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September 30, 2022 | Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 85: Shelter’s Impact on Inflation Indicators, and a Red Week, Month and Quarter

After running down a bloody week to end a bloody month and quarter, and the macro news for the week of Sept. 26-30, Monday Morning Minutes hosts Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau field a question from a listener on the impact the shelter cost component has on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (25:58). (For more on how the shelter components work in these inflation indicators, check out MMM episodes 13* and 30**.) As part of their discussion, Jeff and Sam review how the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas computes shelter cost’s impact on inflation (30:54) as well as how they think shelter cost inflation will influence Fed officials’ messaging (35:30).

Jeff and Sam kick off the episode with a red rundown for the week, month and quarter (1:50), with the pain shared across equities, fixed income (6:34) and commodities (10:24). On the macro front (16:57), they take a look at some durable goods and home prices data before noting the continued strength of the labor market. Jeff and Sam also provide a summation of the week’s messaging from Fed officials: hawk, hawk, hawk (20:31). Next week will be busy with manufacturing, services and labor force numbers (43:19).

*MMM Episode 13: Recap of the April 26-30 Market Week
**MMM Episode 30: August 23-27 Recap, Question of the Week and Outlook

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About the Hosts

About the Hosts

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.