After running down a bloody week to end a bloody month and quarter, and the macro news for the week of Sept. 26-30, Monday Morning Minutes hosts Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau field a question from a listener on the impact the shelter cost component has on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (25:58). (For more on how the shelter components work in these inflation indicators, check out MMM episodes 13* and 30**.) As part of their discussion, Jeff and Sam review how the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas computes shelter cost’s impact on inflation (30:54) as well as how they think shelter cost inflation will influence Fed officials’ messaging (35:30).
Jeff and Sam kick off the episode with a red rundown for the week, month and quarter (1:50), with the pain shared across equities, fixed income (6:34) and commodities (10:24). On the macro front (16:57), they take a look at some durable goods and home prices data before noting the continued strength of the labor market. Jeff and Sam also provide a summation of the week’s messaging from Fed officials: hawk, hawk, hawk (20:31). Next week will be busy with manufacturing, services and labor force numbers (43:19).
*MMM Episode 13: Recap of the April 26-30 Market Week**MMM Episode 30: August 23-27 Recap, Question of the Week and Outlook
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.