DoubleLine's Bill Campbell, head of the firm's global sovereign and emerging markets team, joins Client Portfolio Manager Jeff Probst on the latest episode of Perspectives to unpack why markets read Fed Chair Warsh's second meeting so differently than his first. Bill traces the shift back to Warsh's move away from forward guidance. In June, his repeated emphasis on price stability convinced markets he would act aggressively on inflation. In July, when pressed on why he hadn't acted despite inflation still running above target, he had no clear answer, a change Bill believes explains the sharp yield curve steepening that followed. He also ties the long end's volatility to a broader global fiscal backdrop, from ongoing war spending in the U.S. to fiscal uncertainty in Japan and a new government in the UK.
On positioning, Bill says these developments reinforce DoubleLine's existing playbook rather than changing it. The team continues to favor the belly of the curve, sees a weaker dollar and international markets, particularly emerging market local currency debt, as attractive medium-term opportunities, and remains disciplined on credit, preferring to stay up in quality with tight spreads across the board.
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He oversees the firm’s Global Sovereign and Emerging Markets teams and serves as the lead Portfolio Manager for the firm’s emerging markets and international strategies. He is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Prior to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Co., first as a Quantitative Analyst in the Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group then as a Vice President in the Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a B.S. in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a B.A. in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell also holds an M.A. in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
