At no time did I attempt to corner, squeeze or manipulate the silver market. — W. Herbert Hunt, testimony quoted by TIME, May 12, 1980
At no time did I attempt to corner, squeeze or manipulate the silver market.
— W. Herbert Hunt, testimony quoted by TIME, May 12, 1980
Silver has long been one of the most volatile precious metals, prone to sudden surges and equally sharp drops. Its volatility is especially evident in 2025, with a year-to-date return of 57%—one of its strongest performances in five decades.
This week’s chart sets silver prices to 100 at the start of each year, illustrating how returns unfold within that calendar year. Most years end between 100 and 125—ordinary stretches when silver takes a back seat to gold.
The extraordinary years leap out from the chart. In 1979, silver went parabolic as the Hunt Brothers attempted to corner the market, causing prices to more than quadruple. By 1980, the rally had collapsed, with regulation and tighter monetary policy driving losses of more than half within months.
This pairing—the spectacular surge of 1979 followed by the brutal collapse of 1980—is the defining cautionary tale of silver investing. It illustrates not only the potential for massive upside but also the ever-present risk that a rally can end in tears. As we noted when discussing gold’s resurgence as a neutral reserve asset (link to blog 92), central banks value stability. Silver tells a different story—its surges are driven more by speculation than by official demand.
Where does 2025 fit into that history? While it lacks the speculative excess of 1979, 2025 already ranks as the second-best year for silver in five decades—well above the usual cluster of ordinary years.
Both eras share a backdrop of inflation concerns and monetary uncertainty. In the late 1970s, oil shocks and rapid price increases eroded confidence in the dollar. Today, lingering inflation pressures and debate over the Federal Reserve’s next moves create a similar atmosphere of unease.
The question is: what comes next? Silver’s history suggests that parabolic rallies often carry the seeds of their own undoing. Thin trading magnifies swings, and positioning can flip quickly. As 1980 showed, opportunity and danger often arrive together in silver.
At the same time, the policy backdrop matters. Just as Fed tightening helped snuff out the rally of the early 1980s, today the central bank’s path remains a decisive swing factor. Rate cuts could fuel demand by lowering the cost of holding metals. But if inflation keeps the Fed restrictive, silver’s climb could stall.
Silver’s history has always been one of extremes. This year adds another memorable chapter. Whether it proves to be a prelude to sustained gains or a fleeting replay of the past, the echoes of 1979 remind us that in silver, history rarely moves quietly.
Between the Lines is a weekly blog by DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Sam Garza, Joseph Mezyk and Quant Analysts Fei He, CFA and Sunyu Wang that breaks down topical macro and market issues. For questions or suggestions please e-mail us at betweenthelines@doubleline.com. The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of DoubleLine Capital LP, its affiliates or employees.
