A briefing by DoubleLine Global Bond Portfolio Manager Bill Campbell explains that President Trump is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates not only to stimulate the economy but also to head off a surge in government debt-service costs as maturing Treasuries are refinanced and new bonds are issued at prevailing rates in the spot market. The paper projects out by calendar years the maturity walls for $28.95 trillion in outstanding Treasury debt already on the books as of July 31, 2025. In 2026 alone, Mr. Campbell writes, $4.175 trillion of that debt will mature and likely will be rolled into new, higher-cost securities if the Federal Reserve by then has not brought down official short-term interest rates. “The maturity walls in 2027-2028, the remaining years of the Trump administration, likewise will roll into higher coupons absent a decline in interest rates,” Mr. Campell writes. “And this debt stock omits net new debt being issued to cover a federal deficit currently running at $1.9 trillion, or 6.5% of U.S. gross domestic product. Given this outlook, the president understandably is pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates.
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager for the DoubleLine Global Bond Strategy and is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. He covers Developed Markets, Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA), and China. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Previous to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Company, first as a Quantitative Analyst in their Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group, then as a Vice President in their Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a BS in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a BA in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell holds an MA in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
