Bill Campbell, head of the Global Sovereign & Emerging Markets (GSEM) team at DoubleLine, shares his current thinking on the GSEM current thinking on the medium-term market and macroeconomic impacts of the Iran war. “To be sure, Operation Epic Fury has raised serious risks on the global inflation and growth fronts,” Mr. Campbell writes. “Beyond those shocks, I foresee lasting added risk premiums on energy, chemical and fertilizer sources as the world prices in a destabilized security environment in and surrounding the Persian Gulf. However, the Iran conflict also likely will act as an accelerant of trends that have informed GSEM’s decisions on portfolio allocation and construction. These include transition from a U.S.-led investment regime to a multipolar one; commensurate capital flows away from the United States toward non-U.S. markets; accelerated U.S. deficit spending and debt issuance, aggravating an unsustainable fiscal trajectory; and increased tailwinds to energy-exporting countries in Latin America.”
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He oversees the firm’s Global Sovereign Debt team and serves as a Portfolio Manager of the DoubleLine Emerging Markets Local Currency and Global Bond strategies. He is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Prior to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Co., first as a Quantitative Analyst in the Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group then as a Vice President in the Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a B.S. in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a B.A. in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell holds an M.A. in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
