The sovereign debt of developed market (DM) countries for decades was largely presumed to float free of governance and societal risk factors endemic to the sovereign issues of emerging markets (EM) countries. Global Bond Portfolio Manager Bill Campbell says this luxury is no longer the case. “Market participants are coming to the realization,” Mr. Campbell writes, “that the time has come to hold the so-called developed markets to the same standards.” In this report, he does not issue “a doomsday forecast but a call for active allocation among sovereign risks to DM countries’ monetary promises. I will lay out the developed sovereign borrowers whose fiscal-political positions appear to be at greatest risk: France, the United Kingdom and Japan. I also will review similar market warning signs for the United States. Then I will share an allocation strategy for navigating these emerging risks in the developed world.”
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He oversees the firm’s Global Sovereign Debt team and serves as a Portfolio Manager of the DoubleLine Emerging Markets Local Currency and Global Bond strategies. He is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Prior to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Co., first as a Quantitative Analyst in the Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group then as a Vice President in the Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a B.S. in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a B.A. in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell holds an M.A. in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
