After sharing some wise advice on staying warm to keep heating costs down, Monday Morning Minutes host Samuel Lau and guest Eric Dhall, a trader and quantitative analyst on the firm’s Cross Asset team who is subbing for Jeffrey Mayberry, review a mixed market bag and the macro news of Halloween week Oct. 31-Nov. 4. Which all serves as prelude to the Topic of the Week: the FOMC meeting and 75-bp rate hike (11:41). Sam and Eric begin by noting the real-time dynamic of this meeting, in which markets reacted as if they had received a dovish statement from the FOMC, only to run into Chair Jerome H. Powell’s quickly and consistently presented hawkish stance. The markets seemed to turn worse with each minute that passed, notes Sam. It’s the same message, Sam and Eric point out, that Powell has presented for months. Eric turns to “Game of Thrones” to translate Powell’s speech: Winter is coming. Sam and Eric go on to spotlight some of the questions fielded by Powell, whose general response was, price stability and whatever it takes (24:45).
Sam and Eric cover a down week for equities (2:09) and fixed income (3:28) while commodities received a boost from a weaker dollar (7:33) and bitcoin was up, breaking 21,000 just before the episode was recorded (8:10). On the macro front (9:49), JOLTS numbers beat expectations, denoting a supply-and demand-imbalance, and ISM Manufacturing marked its 29th straight print in expansionary territory. Looking ahead, it’s a light week (36:28) aside from the much anticipated CPI print on Thursday. This episode was recorded after market close Nov. 4, 2022.
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