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May 2023

Commercial Real Estate Fundamentals Update 5-3-23

DoubleLine’s Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities and Commercial Real Estate Debt team see near- to medium-term challenges driven by higher interest rates, tighter lending conditions and a potential economic slowdown. However, we would caution investors against painting the CRE debt market with a broad brush as outcomes will vary greatly across property types, geographic locations and loan vintages. In contrast to the excesses leading into the GFC and resulting repricing in the crisis, the CRE market over the past decade has experienced steady price appreciation amid conservative lending. Consequently, to the extent fundamentals suffer deterioration, we expect the brunt of the impact to fall on equity owners as opposed to debt holders. Through active management and targeted credit selection, we see unique investment opportunities in higher-rated, investment grade CMBS as well as newly originated private mortgage loans.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

  • Morris Chen

    Structured Products - CMBS

    Morris Chen

    Structured Products - CMBS

    Mr. Chen joined DoubleLine at its inception in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager leading the CMBS/CRE Debt Investment team and CRE New Investment Review Group, and is responsible for the oversight and management of all CRE Debt related investments at DoubleLine. Mr. Chen is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation and Structured Products Committees providing valued insight into the CMBS sector. He is also an active participant and speaker at CREFC events. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Chen was a Vice President at TCW where he was responsible for CMBS credit analysis and trading from 2004-2009. He holds a BS in Business Administration with concentrations in Business Development and Finance from the University of California, Riverside.