After reviewing a red week ended Feb. 24, 2023, for stocks (1:57), bonds (3:11) and commodities (4:39) and the week’s macro news (7:04), Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau look under the hood (15:07) at “Super Core Inflation,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s metric du jour for gauging consumer price inflation and presumably setting the federal funds interest rate. This metric tracks the subset consumer services prices remaining after stripping out housing. What’s left represents only about a quarter of the headline Consumer Price Index. Sam Lau opines that amounts to “a pretty small chunk of the inflation basket to guide monetary policy.” Giving the Fed the benefit of the doubt, Jeff Mayberry notes the central bankers have developed narratives around disinflation in goods prices and an outlook for cooling housing costs, but they have no disinflation for services ex-housing.
Then Jeff and Sam list the macro news due the week of Feb. 27-March 3 (28:25). These include durable goods and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller house price indices (Monday), consumer confidence (Wednesday), a Neel Kashkari speech and ISM manufacturing (Wednesday), a Christopher Waller speech (Thursday) and ISM services (Friday).
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.
