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Apr 21, 2023 | Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 112: Red Week, Recession Metrics and the Overnight Reverse Repo Facility

After reviewing a mostly down market week of April 17-21, except for bank loans, DoubleLine Portfolio Managers Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau take a look at the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility* at the behest of a listener (11:37), specifically, how does operating the facility benefit the Fed. Sam lays out how the facility supports the Fed’s monetary policy and how the facility works to maintain the range of the Fed’s effective federal funds rate. Sam also looks at whether the Fed could discontinue the facility, which he says right now would run counter to the Fed’s goals (23:33).

In their rundown of the week (2:29), Jeff and Sam report on a flat S&P 500, and a down week for fixed income (3:36), commodities (5:08) and Bitcoin (7:09). Over in Macro Land (7:25), they look at jobless claims, LEI data that says we are not headed toward a recession but are in one (8:37), and manufacturing and services PMI prints that were both expansionary for the first time since June (9:23) (and the stock market didn’t care). In their roundup of Fedspeak (10:13), officials all pointed to tightening. Next week’s data (30:49) will include home prices, the first GDP estimate, jobless claims and the PCE deflator.

*For more on how the facility operates, check out MMM Ep. 18, “The Purpose of the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility”

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ABOUT THE HOSTS

ABOUT THE HOSTS

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.