After a recapping the mixed market week of May 15-19, DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Mayberry and Eric Dhall take on a Topic of the Week that looks at the in-the-headlines banking industry (13:04). Jeff begins the ToC section with coverage of a Federal Bank of New York blog post* with some interesting data on banking deposit activity from March 2022 to March 2023, when outflows accelerated amid the banking crisis. While that period marked almost $1 trillion in outflows, the activity was concentrated in the super-regional sector. That information leads to the question of the week: Does it matter to the banks if they have excess reserves? Will profitability go up if they have less deposits to pay for? (19:39) Jeff responds with a look at the need for the super-regionals to now pay put more to retain their deposits and what that means in terms of levering up. When not in a Fed tightening cycle, deposits are a very cheap form of having assets.
Looking at the markets, the S&P 500 was up on the week (1:50) while the Agg was down (3:17). It was a light week in Macro Land (6:41), with retail and industrial numbers and a recession-flashing LEI print. Fed Chair’s Jerome H. Powell’s sitdown with former Chair Ben Bernanke offered up some prime Fedspeak (9:57), with Jeff and Eric discussing the event and its impact on the markets. Next week will deliver a lot of data (22:10), including PMI and personal income and savings numbers as well as the April PCE print.
*Bank Funding During the Current Monetary Policy Tightening Cycle
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Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.
Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.