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July 21, 2023 | Monday Morning Minutes

MMM Episode 125: Winter’s Optimism Returns Amid Summer’s Heatwave

DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau recap a very positive market week of July 17-21 as green screens throw some shade at the summer doldrums. Equities continued to roll, with all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 positive month-to-date (2:07), fixed income was up on the week before market close, with IG corporate credit a notable performer (4:21), commodities continued to move in a positive direction for the week and month, helping to erase their negative performance year-to-date (6:33) and Bitcoin was positive but relatively quiet (10:20). It was a very quiet week in Macro Land leading into next week’s FOMC meeting – so no Fedspeak to parse (10:50). Prints included retail sales, jobless claims and an LEI that maintains we are in a recession. Next week’s macro (14:41) will very likely bring another Fed rate hike as well as delivering the first estimate for second quarter GDP and data from two of Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell’s favorite metrics: the Employment Cost Index and the PCE deflator. Jeff and Sam close the episode with a discussion of what seems like a reflowering of the optimism that first bloomed in winter 2023 after the calendar turned on a brutal 2022. (18:23)

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ABOUT THE HOSTS

ABOUT THE HOSTS

  • Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Jeffrey Mayberry

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Mayberry joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives‐based and multi‐asset strategies. Mr. Mayberry is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) committee and a contributing member on our Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. He also co-hosts DoubleLine’s weekly Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcast. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Mayberry was a Senior Vice President at TCW for nine years within the Mortgage Group, where he specialized in portfolio and fund monitoring and analytics. He holds a B.S. in Engineering from Harvey Mudd College and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Peter F. Drucker Graduate School of Management at Claremont Graduate University.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, ShermanShow@Doubleline.com) and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, Minutes@Doubleline.com) podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.