Aug 10, 2023 | The Sherman Show

Wading Into the AI-Stirred Stock Froth (144)

DoubleLine Deputy CIO Jeffrey Sherman and Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau welcome Matt Forester, CIO of BNY Mellon Advisors, to The Sherman Show. Mr. Forester kicks off the episode by discussing the recent branding shift from Lockwood Advisors to BNY Mellon Advisors and the opportunities it will provide to the firm, which oversees about 550 strategies that it can provide to clients (0:53). Mr. Forester then shares his macro and markets outlook, including where we are in the cycle (8:08), how the Fed’s fight to lower inflation is going to get tougher the closer it gets to its 2% target rate (9:22) and what he calls the frenzy into AI stocks (11:10), which they then take a deep dive into. Mr. Forester notes that the companies that made money from the creation of a national electrical grid in the 1920s and the launch of the internet in the 1990s were not the beneficiaries of these productivity-enhancing technologies. “I suspect we’re there again, that the companies that are now leading the charge are not the same ones that are going to emerge,” he says. The three also discuss the hype around AI (13:44), and what these kinds of tools might mean for the investment world when everyone is using them (18:34).

They round out the episode with talk on recession probability (23:13), the pitfalls that Mr. Forester sees out there (29:07), his thoughts on asset allocation (33:41) and what the fiscal response mechanism could be in the next recession (37:19). On the latter Mr. Forester says, “I don’t think fiscal policy is going to be a big tailwind for markets for quite a long time. We’ve just got a really big hole to dig out of.” This episode was recorded July 17, 2023.

(The views expressed by Matt Forester are for informational purposes only, do not constitute investment, tax, legal, financial, or accounting advice, or an offer or solicitation by Mr. Forester or BNY Mellon Advisors, Inc. to purchase, hold or sell any securities, and are subject to change.

Any statements of future expectations or other forward looking statements are based on available information and Mr. Forester’s view as of the time of these statements. Accordingly, such statements are based on assumptions that may involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties. Actual events or outcomes may differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements.)

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  • Jeffrey Sherman, CFA

    Jeffrey Sherman, CFA

    As DoubleLine’s Deputy Chief Investment Officer, Jeffrey Sherman oversees and administers DoubleLine’s Investment Management sub-committee coordinating and implementing policies and processes across the investment teams. He also serves as lead portfolio manager for multi-sector and derivative-based strategies. Mr. Sherman is a member of DoubleLine’s Executive Management and Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committees. He can be heard regularly on his podcast “The Sherman Show” (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, where he interviews distinguished guests, giving listeners insight into DoubleLine’s current views. In 2018, Money Management Executive named Jeffrey Sherman as one of “10 Fund Managers to Watch” in its yearly special report. Prior to joining DoubleLine in 2009, Mr. Sherman was a Senior Vice President at TCW where he worked as a portfolio manager and quantitative analyst focused on fixed income and real-asset portfolios. He was a statistics and mathematics instructor at both the University of the Pacific and Florida State University. Mr. Sherman taught Quantitative Methods for Level I candidates in the CFA LA/USC Review Program for many years. He holds a B.S. in Applied Mathematics from the University of the Pacific and an M.S. in Financial Engineering from the Claremont Graduate University. Mr. Sherman is a CFA® charterholder.

  • Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Samuel Lau

    Macro-Asset Allocation

    Mr. Lau joined DoubleLine in 2009. He is a Strategist on the Fixed Income Asset Allocation (FIAA) Committee and a contributing member on the Global Asset Allocation and Macro Committees. Mr. Lau is a Portfolio Manager on DoubleLine’s strategic commodity strategy while working in portfolio management and trading for derivatives-based and multi-asset strategies, including DoubleLine's Shiller Enhanced CAPE®, Shiller Enhanced International CAPE®, Real Estate and Income, and Multi-Asset Trend strategies. He also co-hosts the Sherman Show (Twitter @ShermanShowPod, and Monday Morning Minutes (Twitter @DLineMinutes, podcasts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Lau was a Vice President at TCW where he worked under Jeffrey Gundlach as a Research Analyst in the Mortgage Group. He holds a B.S. from the University of Wisconsin, Madison and an MBA from the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California.