A raft of research papers has recently appeared on the coming end of the U.S. dollar as the world’s dominant reserve currency. Some of these have made hyperbolic calls for the dollar’s demise as a reserve currency. I disagree. Let’s take a page from history. In the mid-20th century, when the U.S. dollar supplanted the British pound as the primary basis for international settlement, sterling did not disappear from trade all together. It just went on to play a less and less meaningful role. The same fate is in store for the dollar. With that historical nuance in place, dollar disintermediation is a fact, and an accelerating fact at that. I will cover recent significant encroachments on the dollar’s reserve kingship, the reasons for challenges from multiple corners to the dollar standard and the implications for national and regional economies and the investment landscape as the world transitions away from a dollar-based system to a multipolar system.
Mr. Campbell joined DoubleLine in 2013. He is a Portfolio Manager for the DoubleLine Global Bond Strategy and is a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee. He covers Developed Markets, Central & Eastern Europe, Middle East and Africa (CEEMEA), and China. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Campbell worked for Peridiem Global Investors as a Global Fixed Income Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager. Previous to that, he was with Nuveen Investment Management Company, first as a Quantitative Analyst in their Risk Management and Portfolio Construction Group, then as a Vice President in their Taxable Fixed Income Group. Mr. Campbell also worked at John Hancock Financial as an Investment Analyst. He holds a BS in Business Economics and International Business, as well as a BA in English, from Pennsylvania State University. Mr. Campbell holds an MA in Mathematics, with a focus on Mathematical Finance, from Boston University.
