Channel 11’s Ken Shinoda welcomes Dr. Lindsey Piegza, chief economist and managing director at Stifel, to discuss the state of the U.S. economy and just what the Federal Reserve is up to. They jump right into the topic of inflation (0:51), with Dr. Piegza reviewing a list of factors that could contribute to elevated levels going forward, such as China’s zero-COVID-19 policy squeezing supply and employers having to raise wages to fill jobs. “We do view inflation as stubbornly elevated for quite some time going forward,” she notes. Mr. Shinoda and Dr. Piegza then discuss the outlook for recession (5:10), with Dr. Piegza stating that the debate over officially declaring a recession is really academic amid such a painful period for U.S. businesses.
Other topics the two cover include if the Fed will have the resolve to stay the course on reining in price pressures (11:14), potentially hitting a federal funds rate of 6% (13:47), the strength of the U.S. dollar (17:09), the impact of the November elections (22:14) and how another round of government handouts could widen the deficit and hurt the dollar (27:13). On servicing the U.S. deficit, Dr. Piegza notes that the U.S. is not alone when it comes to rapidly rising debt levels relative to GDP. “We still are the prettiest girl in the ugly girl contest,” she says. “That gives me some hope that we will have enough time to put fiscal responsibility back at the top of the list of priorities and get our fiscal books in order without losing significant ground on the dollar.” This episode was recorded Oct. 26, 2022.
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Mr. Shinoda joined DoubleLine at inception in 2009. He is Chairman of the Structured Products Committee and oversees the non-Agency RMBS team specializing in investing in non-Agency mortgage-backed securities, residential whole loans and other mortgage-related opportunities. Mr. Shinoda is co-Portfolio Manager on the Total Return, Opportunistic Income, Income, Opportunistic MBS and Strategic MBS strategies. He is also lead Portfolio Manager overseeing the Mortgage Opportunities private funds. Mr. Shinoda is also a permanent member of the Fixed Income Asset Allocation Committee, as well as, participating in the Global Asset Allocation Committee. In addition, he hosts DoubleLine’s “Channel 11 News” (Twitter @DLineChannel11, dline11@doubleline.com), a webcast series that provides market insights and commentary with peers and industry experts. Prior to DoubleLine, Mr. Shinoda was Vice President at TCW where he worked in portfolio management and trading. He holds a B.S. in Business Administration from the University of Southern California and is a CFA® charterholder.
