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DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 44: Of Jobless Claims, Prices and Reading the Fed Funds’ Tea Leaves

After their review of stocks, bonds, bitcoin and commodities for the week of Dec. 6-10, 2021, cohosts Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau peruse the latest readings of jobless claims and the Consumer Price Index (7:31). Taking note of the rise in stocks Friday on the heels of the CPI’s 6.8% year-over-year increase in November, Jeff notes “maybe the market was expecting a higher print,” adding that a minimal month-to-month rise would push the CPI to a 7.0% gain or higher for December. For their Question of the Week, Jeff and Sam explain the use of federal funds futures pricing in deciphering market expectations for the direction and level of that official short-term interest rate (12:06). They also delve into tools based on fed funds futures pricing to handicap changes in that interest rate, including the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s CME Fed Watch Tool and Bloomberg Financial’s World Interest Rate Probability (WIRP) function (17:13). Looking ahead to the week of Dec. 13, Jeff and Sam discuss the “big meeting” of the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday (28:05) with its prospects of embarking on aggressive tapering to quantitative easing in an effort to reach an end to the Federal Reserve’s bond buying in March 2022.

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