DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 73: It Could Go Either Way

DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Mayberry and Samuel Lau shut the door on a rough first half to the year and begin the second half with coverage of the short, pretty crazy week of July 5-8. Following last week’s signals pointing toward recession, this week included a strong run by the S&P 500 and offered data that could be pointing to at least a little growth (1:59). In fixed income (3:03), the U.S. Treasury yield curve closed the week above the 3 handle across the board, but the 2s10s (two-year/10-year) inversion clocked in across all four days. Jeff and Sam wonder if Monday will bring the fifth consecutive day, a traditional barometer pointing toward recession, and if any analysts will change their tune on how long the inversion must last. Sam also says to be on the lookout for an inversion of the 3s10s (three-month/10-year), a very reliable herald of recession. Commodities’ big positive print on the year continued to fade (7:01).

Jeff and Sam note the stock market doesn’t seem to be following a recessionary narrative before moving into Macro Land (9:15), which delivered services PMI and labor data that could be read as bolstering or questioning a recession story. Next week brings the June CPI and an answer to whether peak inflation was hit in May. This episode was recorded after market close July 8, 2022.

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