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DoubleLine Podcasts

MMM Episode 74: Commodity Market Indicators and Towering Inflation

After reviewing market returns and the July 11-15 week’s macro news, DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Mayberry and Sam Lau field a question on what indicator is the best predictor of commodity prices going forward (21:08). Jeff and Sam start by reviewing the two major commodity indexes, the BCOM and S&P GSCI; their sector weightings; and how momentum is gauged. They then move to a discussion of the outlook for commodities based on longer-term macro factors (26:03), including the futures market, which they cover in-depth in Episode 48*. The two note that current commodity performance is just one of the signifiers influencing the talk about recession (34:00). If you are interested in putting together your own indicators, check out Jeff and Sam’s appearance on Channel 11 News for some additional guidance**.

It was an interesting market week (1:49) full of market-moving macro data. It was a mixed bag for fixed income (3:05), and the struggle in commodities continued (8:05). Currency conversions on the week got a little easier as the euro broke parity, basically achieving a 1-1 exchange with the U.S. dollar (9:35). On the macro front (11:55), the main news was the higher than expected CPI print for June, which broke into the 9 handle. Meanwhile, June retail sales numbers were actually pretty strong (16:30).

*MMM Episode 48: 7% CPI, Pricing in 4 Rate Hikes and a Primer on Commodities Futures

** Channel 11 News S3 E4: Do Commodities Have Room to Run?

The views and opinions expressed herein are as of the date recorded and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Such views/opinions may differ from those of DoubleLine Capital or other of its affiliates and are subject to change without notice. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. The following audio presentations represent DoubleLine’s intellectual property. No portion of these presentations may be published, reproduced, transmitted or rebroadcast in any media in any form without the express written permission of DoubleLine. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. To receive permission from DoubleLine please contact [email protected].

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