city
yellow

DoubleLine Podcasts

S8 E17 Elections Analyst Sean Trende Guests on The Sherman Show

Sean Trende joins DoubleLine’s Jeffrey Sherman and Samuel Lau to discuss, among other topics, the use of aggregate polling to forecast election results, the challenges in creating accurate sample sizes in the era of the cellphone and internet, how personal biases impact not only how data models are interpreted but how the models are built and what COVID-19 might mean for November’s election process. Mr. Trende is the Senior Elections Analyst for news website RealClearPolitics. The podcast was recorded June 18, 2020.

Mr. Trende says the aggregation approach used by RealClearPolitics in its tracking of political polling is an advantage over single-sample polling, and the news site’s averaging methods promote transparency. He notes the difficulty of creating accurate polls when “everybody lies about voting and going to church.”

Mr. Sherman raises the issue of how to accurately capture public political sentiment considering the difficulty pollsters must have in getting people to respond to an unknown caller ringing their cellphones. This leads to a discussion among Mssrs. Trende, Sherman and Lau about the challenges of modeling in the worlds of politics and finance with a comparison made to recent questions about unemployment data. Mr. Trende says models using online polling still have a way to go.

Mr. Sherman wonders what the blown predictions that “remain” would carry the day in the Brexit vote means for the reliability of voter polling. Mr. Trende responds that the polls were accurate, and it was the analysts who blew the call, revealing their political biases. They talk about the problem of confirmation bias in modeling and reporting an era in which news consumers can filter out information they find disagreeable. Mr. Trende found this out personally in 2016 when he was savaged online after writing an article about data pointing to a possible Trump victory in November.

Mr. Trende sees Democratic candidate Joe Biden with a big lead today in the national popular vote, but there is still time for President Trump to rebound in the electoral vote by Election Day.

Guest Speaker Bio

The views and opinions expressed herein are as of the date recorded and should not be construed as an offer to buy or sell any securities. Such views/opinions may differ from those of DoubleLine Capital or other of its affiliates and are subject to change without notice. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. The following audio presentations represent DoubleLine’s intellectual property. No portion of these presentations may be published, reproduced, transmitted or rebroadcast in any media in any form without the express written permission of DoubleLine. DoubleLine has no obligation to provide any updates or changes. To receive permission from DoubleLine please contact info@doubleline.com.

Neither DoubleLine nor any of its affiliates makes any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the statements or any information contained in this podcast and any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.

DoubleLine is not providing any financial, economic, legal, accounting or tax advice in these podcasts. The receipt of these podcasts by any listener is not to be taken as constituting the giving of investment advice by any DoubleLine entity or individual to that listener, nor to constitute such person a client of any DoubleLine entity. The portfolio risk management process includes an effort to monitor and manage risk, but does not imply low risk.

logo

DoubleLine

333 S. Grand Ave.
18th Floor
Los Angeles
CA 90071

213.633.8200

 

This is a Test!

DoubleLine is testing our emergency back-up plan. If this were a real emergency, DoubleLine would be posting news, updates, contact information, webcast or conference call information here to keep our clients updated on the situation. To contact DoubleLine, please click here.

×
 

Thank you for your request(s). You will receive slides after the webcast has started. Replay and Recap notifications will take several days following the compliance review.

×
 

    Please fill in your information below in order to open this article in your browser.

    I am an Institutional Investor

    [recaptcha]